Will Richardson
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A case of not what if... but WHEN
When world trade agreements finally get sorted and Canada is more or less forced to allow access to its markets for dairy produce, milk quotas will immediately become unsustainable and each milk producer will be free to produce unlimited amounts of milk. Of course the price will drop, herds will expand and producers will become more efficient at producing milk. In my opinion this could happen within 3years and certainly within 5years. What does everyone else think ?
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8/1/2007, 12:10
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
I think that anything is probably better than the 'limbo-land' that we are in right now.
I would prefer that we could retain market support, providing that the system is managed properly. Europe put a good system in place fifty years ago for good reasons, and then left it to rot. Now its biting us where it hurts.
But we are beyond the point of no return. I would just like to see the uncertainty finally levelling off so that we can get on with our lives, so to speak.
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11/1/2007, 20:03
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canuk
Ex97
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
Mind boggleing Will, simply mind boggleing, its like your a jealous school boy or something.Why do you care so much about our market?
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12/1/2007, 15:59
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Kristin1
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
I agree with canuk, how much does our market affect you over in the UK, very little I would guess. If you can afford Canadian quota you are welcome to come buy some. While our milk price may be high our inputs are also incredibly high due to quota prices.
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12/1/2007, 16:47
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foxleigh
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A case of not what if... but WHEN
what do hay or grain or electricity or labour prices have to do with quota prices?
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12/1/2007, 20:35
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Kristin1
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
Who said anything about hay, grain, labour and electricity? I meant our total input costs to operate a dairy, of which quota is a very large percent.
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13/1/2007, 0:18
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foxleigh
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A case of not what if... but WHEN
but isnt it true that the farmer owns the quota and if it is paid for and owned then it is no longer an input but an asset.
Which may be borrowed against.
Therefore I dont consider a quota to be an input cost like labour,electricity,hay and grain rather capital investment by the farmer similar to land and water rights/entitlements here.
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13/1/2007, 7:11
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Kristin1
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
True - the farmer owns it as much as he is the one the bank will be coming after if he misses a loan payment; but with quota for a small dairy farm costing a million dollars +, never mind any herd over 100 cows, the only farmers that own all their quota are those that have been in the business 20+ years. The rest of them are managing huge debt which has to be paid every month.
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13/1/2007, 14:41
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
And if you are being strictly business about it, owned quota has to be counted along with the other valuable assets as having a potential value earning money at the very least in the building society. And if a farm business can't earn more annually than the value of its assets could earn in the building society annually, then the business is unviable, even if it is putting bread on the table.
The only thing keeping us farming in Northern Ireland is the relentless increase in land value. Its certainly not the earning power. And land value is inflated by property developers who buy up everything thats going.
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13/1/2007, 16:08
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triday1
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A case of not what if... but WHEN
Will,
I find it interesting that a European is gonna open this debate. You have the most closed markets in the world, we(the US) basically can't send milk, beef or grain in your general direction due to some fearmongering that BST or GMO corn is gonna cause Jordan, Victoria Beckham or Madonna to need more plastic surgery. Do you really want to open your markets? The United States can produce a lot more milk than it currently is, even at a loss we don't have to make it forever just longer than the rest of the World. Once a country kills off its dairy infrastructure due to open world markets it will take years to rebuild, giving the longest survivor an effective monopoly and freedom to price set in the long run.
I am often baffled at people thinking they have a God given right( free trade is supposed to be mutually beneficial) to send their products into other nations. The united states was an asshole for closing the borders to Canadian cattle,"we ruined their life" blah, blah,blah, even though keeping it open meant ruining the markets for milk and beef in this country. The victim in that was the Canadian farmer becasue their government and the feed companies(greed) got them there. The mad cow diasaster is gonna spring up again here with the border opening,(before milking cows on my own, I worked for a feed company, during my time there an audit of 30 odd canadian feed mills took place, 75% were using banned ingredients almost 5 years after they were banned and not one had been cited by the Canadian government).
Not to single out Canada(and I have the utmost respect for Kristin1 and Canuk etc, I really don't want to start a pickleing match here) just have more experience on that one. New Zealand is another one, we don't need their product, and a tiny little islands with a population of less than 4 million isn't gonna buy enough of anything else to worry about losing their business yet our free trade policies allow them to dump tons of product that gets mislabeled and duped on our consumers and we got nothing in return.
Free trade is a good thing, but in terms of self-security for any nation food probally needs to be exempt, or at least partially protected so in the long run when all the milk, beef and grain production moves to south america and china that don't have to follow human rights standards, food sanitation standards or anything else that adds to cost of production. Then they will be like OPEC and able to hold us all hostage(extreme example I know).
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18/1/2007, 16:49
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JonnykelsoII
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
Afraid with CAP farmers have just been pushed about & toyed with as "pawns". Keep changing their minds-be more efficient, then less intensive..! Theres enough money to go around if either A. food prices go up B. supermarkets dont take such a huge whack!!!
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18/1/2007, 23:46
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LRG
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
I have kind of lost track over the last couple of months over what is going on with the WTO. Have they made a final decision yet or are they still discussing things?
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19/1/2007, 13:57
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classcow
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A case of not what if... but WHEN
Very well said Triday. (1 Karma point for you!)I think you have spoken on behalf of many dairymen I know who are sick of hearing how the US government has ruined the Canadian dairyman. Canada has had the best of both worlds, a quota system plus and outlet for their excess cattle. Now that the Canadians are forced to work in a closed system, they are forced to become more efficient. I do not wish anyone financial stress, but the US dairyman has taken a hit from their past benefits. I hope the border never opens for cattle. I am afraid it will drive our cattle and milk prices even lower than the depleted price we are getting now.
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21/1/2007, 4:19
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canuk
Ex97
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
There are more fresh heifers in WI in 1 year than all of Canada, so how can this have any cause for your price of heifers? Always wonder why you need any Canadian heifers in the first place, why on earth can`t the U.S provide enough for themselves? I`m all for keeping the boarder closed on milk products as well as we stand to benefit the most by that. What NY over produces would more than flood our market most years.
When the farmer here gets 60% of the consumer doller for dairy products, and the U.S dairy farmer only gets 20% who is to blame???? Come on our processers still make a profit, and their CEO`s still make six figure wages. I really do not know why you don`t get paid more for your dairy products, but OUR quota system is not to blame.
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21/1/2007, 15:02
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ghz
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
Triday,I have a hard time seeing any kind of a, S.American-Chinese,OPEC type of a agricultural cartel forming in the next 50 -80 yrs. for the simple reason that eastern europe,Ukraine, Russia -Siberia are virtually unexploited and are far below their potential for world food production.
Another reason I dont see this happening is that I think relatively high oil prices are here to stay and with that comes the silver lining of viable alternative fuels such as bio-diesel and ethanol.The US ,Brazil and Europe are comiitting quite a bit of acreage to these ends for domestic use already and if the trend continues a lot of crop land that was previously in competition with another countries could instead compete with OPEC.
I do agree with you that it´s in everybody´s best intersts to, as you said "partially protect" every nations ability to produce food.But how do you do that with out creating "corporate welfare" or subsidising poor efficiency and incompetence?
Subsidies,Tariffs and Trade barriers once in a while help some fledgling industry to get going ,or can help protect for a time a national industry in need of re-organization.But generally I think those tariffs and subsidies dont pay off so well for the public good and wind up hitting the consumer at the cash register and coming out of the tax payers wallet at tax time and become a weight on a nations economy.
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23/1/2007, 23:18
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foxleigh
Ex97
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A case of not what if... but WHEN
all I want is a price for my milk that will cover the cost of production (including farm repayments )and have a bit left over so I can have a nice holiday each year and go and buy a pair of levis (or go out for tea)without wondering what Im going to go without of to cover the cost of them.
I dont mind the long hours but I do mind working for nothing while other people APPEAR to have a surplus of money without having to put in the hours we do and YES I do realise life is about choices and I have made mine HOWEVER....
I object to being a 3rd world citizen in a first world country so that other people can have the cleanest, greenest food in the world at such low cost.
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25/1/2007, 1:41
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canuk
Ex97
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
Same here - I would still like to know how the CEO`s of major processers in the U.S can make 6 figue saleries, and tell the farmer they can only pay $13(or less) for their milk, that is nothing short of crimminal.
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25/1/2007, 15:16
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scoobyscotlad
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Re: A case of not what if... but WHEN
quote:
foxleigh wrote:
all I want is a price for my milk that will cover the cost of production (including farm repayments )and have a bit left over so I can have a nice holiday each year and go and buy a pair of levis (or go out for tea)without wondering what Im going to go without of to cover the cost of them.
I dont mind the long hours but I do mind working for nothing while other people APPEAR to have a surplus of money without having to put in the hours we do and YES I do realise life is about choices and I have made mine HOWEVER....
I object to being a 3rd world citizen in a first world country so that other people can have the cleanest, greenest food in the world at such low cost.
That is so well said!
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25/1/2007, 17:36
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