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Gavin56
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Some "What ifs?"
Last year our cows went out on 7th May ( and were back in by the 21st).
This year they went out on 13th April and have milked extremely well.
As a consequence we will have produced a lot more milk than last April ( when we weren`t pushing cows owing to First Milk`s seasonality penalties = 12 p for our top litres).
What if this has been happening UK - wide? Last April was a poor spring in England IIRC.
Could we see a 5% rise in production - and would this take us up to the quota profile for the first time in several years?
What if the quota market then blinked?
Given that the AMPE for April has now hit 22.4 ppl ( up 5 ppl on last April ) - What if milk prices next winter topped 21 p with seasonality then on top?
Would it mean that it at long last paid to fill quota?
Are there enough cows left in the UK to do this ( never mind whether there are enough producers ! )
Its probably beyond the UK co-ops to score in the open goal that the world market represents at the present time but UDF at least seem fairly gung-ho about prospects.
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29/4/2007, 22:43
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JoulesH
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
What if this dry spell continues? Our cows went out earlier too - just because, for once, ground conditions on our clay permitted it. Luckily we have plenty of silage left but we are already expecting to have to graze some silage fields if it doesn't rain soon. Others locally have no forage. Here in E Mids we did not have a very wet winter and we have had nothing more than a dust sprinkler in the last 5 weeks. What if we get the hot summer that is being promised (threatened) and cows are heat stressed, lethargic and lack of forage again? Barley is already flowering and the straw will be very short stemmed, ditto wheat. (I saw a field of beans locally, it was 6" high and flowering). What if the Australian drought and the commodities market in the states pushes the price of feed yet higher? What if the forthcoming NVZ revisions are that additional £50k or £80k of capital required that just ain't there on most dairy farms? What if the stilton creameries (that we supply) don't get the message that WE NEED A PRICE INCREASE..... they won't have any 3 counties milk because I know of plenty of farmers round here getting out of cows this summer!
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30/4/2007, 0:08
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Gavin56
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
OK so some things are beginning to happen.
UDF acheive an auction at over 23 ppl for summer milk and the quota sale price on offer at IPA has now reached double the trough recorded earlier this year.
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4/5/2007, 23:48
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Gavin56
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
Well April production is up , but with butterfat down , there hasn`t really been a rise in Kg of fat as it were.
Looks like the quota price is headed back over 3p though.
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9/5/2007, 20:44
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Gavin56
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
Hmm . May production is back in line with last year , so no surge ( yet ) .
The quota market has eased , but the milk market is taking off.
22p in store price is looking cheapskate now.
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11/6/2007, 0:27
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Gavin56
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
The latest rise from First Milk will push our price just over 18p but there is to be an increase for Highlands and Islands producer`s ( and they sure need it ) of 1.75 p from 1st July.
That will take them near to 20p a litre.
From a Co-op too.
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27/6/2007, 23:45
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astrixL
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
If first milk is a co-op why should highlands and islands producers recive such an increase over ordinary co-op members after all a co-op means everyone takes an even share of good or bad prices and if I remember correctly when one of the island creameries needed investment (waste disposal, from memory) all co-op member contributed to it after much wailing and knashing of teeth from the Bute producers! and now they seem to be gaining more from it than the rest of the 'co-op' members!!!!!
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28/6/2007, 11:20
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astrixL
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
If first milk is a co-op why should highlands and islands producers recive such an increase over ordinary co-op members after all a co-op means everyone takes an even share of good or bad prices and if I remember correctly when one of the island creameries needed investment (waste disposal, from memory) all co-op member contributed to it after much wailing and knashing of teeth from the Bute producers! and now they seem to be gaining more from it than the rest of the 'co-op' members!!!!!
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28/6/2007, 11:22
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Campbeltowncowboy
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
astrixL. if you are a First Milk member you would have had a small increase which came from the liquid market which the island producers did not get,we did not ask to be treated any different from other co-op members this is the way the Directors choose to run the creamaries. I still beleive in the co-op principle and by the way we have all helped in the island areas to pay for the 15% stake in Wisemans!!! 
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28/6/2007, 19:11
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Gavin56
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
First Milk may be a co-op but the decision has been taken to differentiate contracts to reflect the end use fo the milk.
The Highlands and Islands producers` milk is ( mostly?) going into premium cheeses for niche markets.
Down south Barbers ( a smallish cheesemaker) has announced a 2p rise from 18.6 to 20.6ppl.
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29/6/2007, 2:49
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astrixL
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
was unaware that any of your fellow first milk members had had an increase from liquid milk which you have not had and if they had i dont beleive they should have got it and on the co-op principle they should be no disparity betwwen members either in payment recieved from first milk or contribution made to first milk as you are all in the co-op as supposed equals!
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29/6/2007, 14:24
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Gavin56
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
But there isn`t much point in incentivising a producer to up his protein levels , if his milk always goes to the liquid market at a flat rate price.In that case only the fat fraction has a value, and cell counts and TBCs are a priority.
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29/6/2007, 23:31
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Gavin56
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
How much do you think July production has fallen from last year?
If we take a top limit of minus 30 milllion litres( same as June 2007 against 2006) what might be the range downwards?
Minus 5% would be around a drop of 60 million litres.
Last edited by Gavin56, 2/8/2007, 6:44
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1/8/2007, 12:18
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Eryl Vet
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…
First milk have declared force majeure on all their contracts, because production has fallen to less than 95% of prediction due to weather, floods etc - hence they cannot meet their contracts. If this is at all typical of the other milk purchasers then production must be down by at least 60 million litres...
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1/8/2007, 20:25
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Gavin56
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Re: …
Its interesting that the figure quoted by First Milk is a deviation from predicted production - and not a comparison to last year.
Of course a fair number of producers in the SW of Scotland have moved to Lactalis since April 1st, which will be having an influence up here.
Also of note is the slump in Wiseman`s share price through July.Is the market starting to worry about their raw supply costs?
In their annual report , and from reports of the AGM I formed the impression that RWD were trying to stress packaging costs as a major threat , which seems bizarre in view of a likely 5p a litre milk cost increase.
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2/8/2007, 6:52
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scoobyscotlad
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Re: …
The Wiseman share price drop is bound to be a "reaction" to thoughts of an increase in raw milk supply costs.I am sure the fact that Tesco was unable to secure the number of signatures required in the Wiseman pool doesn`t exactly help either.
The "increased packaging costs" is a bluff!
Last edited by scoobyscotlad, 2/8/2007, 7:58
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2/8/2007, 7:57
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Eryl Vet
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Re: …
quote:
Gavin56 wrote:
in view of a likely 5p a litre milk cost increase.
Whilst the spot price and the AMPE and world commodity prices would suggest that we are due a price rise of at least 5ppl ... how can you seem so certain that this is actually going to happen? I am increasingly angry at the reluctance of the major dairies to increase the milk price in line with dairy commodity prices ... strange how farmgate prices fall immediately when world commodity prices are decreasing! Added to this we have just received details of the forthcoming increases in feed prices ... 40-75% for most straights, and some US byproducts unavailable. If there is a lag between these feed increases and the milk price increases we are due it will be the final straw for many dairy businesses ...
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2/8/2007, 12:11
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Gavin56
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Re: …
Yes we are in sight of the promised land - but will we ever get there?
Today`s news of the UDF auctions must put a rocket under the whole industry.
Who IS paying 34.66 p pl for 27 million litres?
What are they making it into, to sell on from that price? You`d need £3,500 for a tonne of cheese. !!!!!!!
If they are that desperate for milk , we should be told and given a price guarantee right now. We could turn the taps on a bit still ,
3X that type of thing.
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2/8/2007, 23:02
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Big Bird
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Re: …
quote:
Gavin56 wrote:
If they are that desperate for milk , we should be told and given a price guarantee right now. We could turn the taps on a bit still ,
3X that type of thing.
If they are that desperate for milk, maybe producing it for them shouldn't be our top priority.
As an industry we should be putting in place a system that attempts to prevent the farmer problems of the last 10 years and gives the farmer more control.
Over the last few years there has been talk several times of tipping milk away as a protest. The dairy companies would have laughed at us and simply bought elsewhere because they could.
Now they're in a position where they need the milk. Now is the time to set some rules of our own, not simply produce more milk because they're willing to pay more for it
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6/8/2007, 10:13
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Campbeltowncowboy
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Re: …
I couldnt agree more BB we have all waited along time to get to this position and should make some rules of our own: like if the price paid to us can go down overnight it can also go up the same way the milk buyers have run out of exuses they have used every one in the book, strengh of the euro/pound, cream prices,commoditiy prices,increases in THEIR fuel and packaging (for not passing on increases)the excuse book should be burned,and if your a direct or co-op producer we should all be asking our top men to get their finger out and play hard. No matter what price milk does go to you can bet the supermarkets will hang on to their margin!!!!
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6/8/2007, 11:57
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Gavin56
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Re: …
A letter from First Milk this morning is mainly about FMD , however it does drift on to prices further down.
They are now talking about 25p , which is an improvement on the last letter . That one was about First Milk supplying Tesco`s Welsh milk , and taking the 22p as an aspiration for the members!
The catch is there is no timescale mentioned for the 25p whatsoever.
I have also heard lately that FM is cutting their liquid customers by 3%.
Interesting as the UK July supply is down 5%.Some other uses must be getting really squeezed.
The July figure is 10% less than in 2003 , and 73 million litres down on July 2001, the last foot and mouth year .
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7/8/2007, 23:58
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Gavin56
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Re: …
Another day , another FM letter !
OK at least this one actually says something tangible - a twopenny rise from 1st September.Meaning a core price of 20.6p
So a full 2 months before it`s money in the bank.
Meanwhile winter has started.
However this time last year when we had a 0.75p cut we would have given a lot to know about what that letter contained this morning.
Can they manage a 4p rise on 1st October to get near the 25p mark?
Not convinced yet!
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14/8/2007, 22:37
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mootoyou
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
Come 1st October everyone will have to be on a much better price for milk, in fact if they all retaliated against the milk buyers they could probably get a better price now.
There just isn't surplus milk about in the world, and stocks of milk powder are at an all time low.
Someone was telling me the other day, that the average consumption of dairy products in CHina amounts to 6litres/per person/annum. There is a big drive over there to increase this to 12 litres, the effect that this would have on the world dairy market is immense, and would see a surge in milk prices.
Milk Spot price this week was around 36 pence per litre, and looks set to stay around that mark or rise more, we're hoping to sell more on spot now, got our first load away this week.
The figure of 25ppl should be nearer the norm come the 1st of October
Last edited by mootoyou, 15/8/2007, 11:22
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15/8/2007, 9:43
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PolledHolsteinbreeder
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Re: Some "What ifs?"
Anyone supply "Milk Direct " up north? I understand there is another group in Cheshire.
I hope everyone is putting pressure on their purchasers. ... except you probably mootoyou !!
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15/8/2007, 11:53
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mootoyou
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Some "What ifs?"
I'd love to see everyone getting a worthwhile price for their milk, it's about time, but a rise in milk price will have to be a significant one to compensate for all the other costs which are going up.
We sell alot of our milk through our own retail, eg hotel, shop and doorstep, we've had shed loads of enquiries this week as alot of the big milk retailers have put their price up 8p on some of their plastics. . . . but as yet those same retailers haven't passed on this price increase to the dairy farmers. . . that's why I strongly believe if enough pressure was put on them now, they would have to bow to pressure, and give a rise in milk price.
But that's way to logical a way to think about the job!!!
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15/8/2007, 15:26
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foxleigh
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Some "What ifs?"
the race is on here too.milk prices have lifted to average around 40 cents per litre depending on calving patterns and componants.i think the exchange rate to the p is around 0.40 ie. 1 $ =.40p. the local murray goulburn coop store has ifted its bottled 2 litre milk to 3.29 of which .80 goes to the farmer whooppee we still arent getting rich!.our agribusiness bank manager looked at our opening price figures and said "ITS A START BUT ITS NOT ENOUGH"And when the regional manager of the ANZ says that you know the industry is not looking good financially.as I write this on the radio they are saying the outlook is grim re rainfall and water alocation.
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15/8/2007, 22:57
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