errolston
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United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Milk at this auction sold for 26ppl!! 48% higher than June 2006.
It beggar's belief that Arla have been deducting 3ppl in April as a balancing charge for excess milk! They must be making a bloody fortune, buying at about 16ppl and selling at well over 20ppl.
If ever anyone needed evidence of a market failure...
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10/6/2007, 10:02
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scoobyscotlad
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
I was gonna start a thread asking the question to the N.I producers,has this started to filter through to the farmgate price?
Expected to average 28-30p for July!
Reading through Wiseman`s Accounts they explain in their introduction(to the shareholder) and i quote "..the primary determinant of farm gate milk price is not the supermarket value of milk,but the value of commodity products like skimmed milk powder and butter..."
When,when,when!!
Anybody got a spare tanker we could fill...
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10/6/2007, 11:45
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Ardbarron
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…United Dairy Farmers June Auction
It hasnt really started to come through yet but hopefully when we get the milk cheque for Mays milk we should see a bit of a rise and then hopefully it keeps going up up up all the way to 30p for our winter milk!!!
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10/6/2007, 14:29
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moore
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
I'm told about 17.5p/litre for May,then 2p rise for each of next 3 months.
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10/6/2007, 21:49
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Gavin56
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Just heard from my First Milk area manager on Friday morn that FM will pay , for those litres above 105% of last June`s volume - wait for it - 21 ppl!
So we will have three prices for June -firstly about 17.5 p for your base ( 80% of daily average litreage over a whole year ) .
Then about 14 p for litres above this until you hit the magic 105% level , when the 21P kicks in.
So the very marginal litres at the top will be worth 21p when they were ( in May this year ) worth 10.5P
Dearie me.
Can`t wait to see how Wiseman et al will react to this. They need to extract a rise of several pence from the supermarkets before the autumn.
Meanwhile the dairy trade are busy tearing each other to pieces , for some corner shops . It was ever thus, but needs to change - and quick.
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11/6/2007, 0:13
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Gavin56
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Not that I`m complaining ( well all right a wee moan ) but at the end of May we could have expected to get 10.5 p for our marginal June milk and now its worth 21p.
See dairy farming .
See budgets.
See long term planning.
Bag o` sh*te , as Paul Calf was wont to say.
So what do we expect to get for June milk 2008 ? Back to a 60% month , albeit at a higher base price?
Who knows.
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11/6/2007, 0:20
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Gavin56
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Still waiting for a letter from FM , but it seems the 21p will only start from 1st July.
So only 14p for top litres in June.
Lowest we hit was 10.2p for June last year.
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12/6/2007, 15:30
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FiringOnAllFour
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
All I can say is that we can take the good of it for a few months, because it won't take long to come back down again.
The first few months of it will go towards filling the hole that the 3ppl-short winter price left us with.
After that, there might be a few quid extra which might help to compensate for what we should have been getting for the last ten years, and what we should be getting when it drops again next year.
Apologies for the very cautious optimism on my part, I know we should be grateful. What I most look forward to seeing is the supermarkets having to pay more for it.
Last edited by FiringOnAllFour, 13/6/2007, 9:51
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13/6/2007, 9:50
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Ardbarron
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United Dairy Farmers June Auction
FOAF, what the supermarkets pay for the milk here in Northern Ireland isnt going to affect our milk price very much because very little of our milk goes to the liquid market anyway, what we need here is for the milk powder prices to stay up
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13/6/2007, 12:43
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FiringOnAllFour
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Yes, I know that. That wasn't my point.
With milk powder returning more money than liquid milk at the moment, the supermarkets will have to pay higher if they want to put it on their shelves. And that is the satisfaction I was talking about.
My point also was that you shouldn't depend on the milk powder market staying strong any more than in the short term.
Last edited by FiringOnAllFour, 13/6/2007, 12:48
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13/6/2007, 12:47
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titantom
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
theres a world shortage of milk if u beleive what you read in the papers! skimmed milk powder is really short,,,hence expensive calf milk powder! china is a massive market that needs filling too and with all the problems in australia with the drought!
start running to the bank!
as with the tecso contract marks and spencer producer cannot export calves either.
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13/6/2007, 13:22
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Ardbarron
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...
Julys auction has just averaged 28.71p thats 10.97p more than the July auction last year!!
Last edited by Ardbarron, 5/7/2007, 13:00
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5/7/2007, 12:59
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FiringOnAllFour
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Anyone like to stab a guess at what the hike in grain is adding to our cost/litre next winter over last winter?
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5/7/2007, 15:52
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Gavin56
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Even £30 a tonne @0.33 kg a litre is a penny a litre rise in costs.
So a very significant portion of rises so far conceded but if we get to 21p plus then I`ll take the hikes in bank rate and feed costs and hope there`s enough left to make me better off.
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6/7/2007, 0:46
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Campbeltowncowboy
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Ardbaron; Although the auction averaged 28.71 what will this put onto producers milk cheques, how much of the previous auction prices have filtered down to the producers milk cheques?
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6/7/2007, 9:11
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FiringOnAllFour
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
I think what is happening in Northern Ireland over the next few months will be watched with interest by those in the rest of the UK and beyond. And indeed, we will be watching with interest how English price progresses.
For those who don't know much about our small province, our milk is auctioned, so we are very open to supply and demand, particularly of commodities.
Coming from the lowest base price paid to us
April 16.5ppl
May 18ppl
June 19.5ppl
Milk sold on three months contract starting
March 17ppl
April 17.3ppl
May 20.3
June 23.16
July 26ppl
August 28.7ppl
So we have been tracking the auction fairly closely so far. Lets see what our july base will be compared to the junejulyaugust auction.
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22/7/2007, 22:34
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MAJESTIC1
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
August auction averaged 34.66p for 29 million litres!
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2/8/2007, 13:31
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svennis
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
I never really got involved with the UK milk market. So could someone please explain to me how this auction thing works?
Are the dairies auctioning their milk in one- or three-months contracts? Is the auction price the one that the supermarkets or other processors have to pay per litre?
And what price do the farmers get at the moment?
Last edited by svennis, 2/8/2007, 14:36
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2/8/2007, 14:34
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Gavin56
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Re: United Dairy Farmers June Auction
Well I don`t know all the ins and outs , but there are both one month and three month contracts auctioned every month.
I assume that it is a delivered price , within a set area , so you probably have to knock at least 2p off to get a farm price equivalent.
I don`t think all the milk is sold this way either so the farm price will be an amalgam of all the outlets.
The interesting point is that Northern ireland has roughly doubled its production since quotas came in in 1984 and effectively all that extra quota has come out of England.
This has exaggerated their existing surplus . Is it about 20% that is needed for local liquid consumption? Might be even lower.
The point being that all those millions of litres get manufactured and exported , or sold south of the border for manufacture.
It also means that there is far less milk in England to manufacture , where the real demand is.
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2/8/2007, 23:11
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