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Dairylands
EX92
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It all depends on the powder market doesn't it? If it keeps falling we could be starting with a 1 before the spring. If the GBP would fall against the USD it might help. I'm sure there are plenty of pennies wasted on the processor side though.
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29/8/2008, 8:13
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
The problem is, it takes something drastic to happen for us to get a decent milk price, like the droughts in Austrailia and NZ.
We can't depend on that for our bread and butter surely? That should be the occasional icing on the cake, to make up for our wet years.
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29/8/2008, 10:01
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
quote:
MarkDay wrote:
If my milk price starts with a 1 next spring I won't be worrying about the price next autumn.
You can say that Mark, because you know you are safe enough. GB price isn't as volatile.
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29/8/2008, 10:05
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Big Bird
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
quote:
MarkDay wrote:
If my milk price starts with a 1 next spring I won't be worrying about the price next autumn.
My list of culls for the coming year looks very much like 'would it sell in a dispersal sale?' Because if the milk price falls and costs keep rising, I'm off.
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30/8/2008, 18:22
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Dairylands
EX92
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Latest auction UDF 18.03p
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23/10/2008, 13:46
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
... for milk to be supplied nov,dec,jan.
So, for the doubting Thomas', our milk price is likely to start with a one, even before the spring. I really hope for all our sakes that the english price stays up, but right now its bucking the europewide/worldwide trend of falling values. A seasoned powder trader was heard to say that powder has never been so hard to shift. With no export refunds/intervention, there is no market stability, and the buyers are just buying hand to mouth
Apparently you yanks need to stop opening up the tap so wide when the milk price starts to rise.
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23/10/2008, 14:59
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Who will you be supplying after that?
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23/10/2008, 21:53
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Dairylands
EX92
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United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Saw heifers make £1500+ today at Ballymena.
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24/10/2008, 12:50
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Heck, average kind of second and third calvers are still making 11-1200 quid.
Stock prices surely have to fall, but not right away. There are still obviously enough buyers out there. This winter may be the last good chance to get out while the goings good.
quote:
will maxwell wrote:
Yeah, let me know too Sperrin and I'll happily tell Dad to jump off the United ship before it sinks completely!!
Does anyone remember the scene in a bond film where a nuclear sub is swallowed up by a very large ship with an opening hull?
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24/10/2008, 13:04
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Ardbarron
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United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Will, why you talking bout giving Harold and co 'your tuppence worth', ok maybe Dobbin but the rest of them are only dairy farmers just like you and me and are going to be taking just as bad a prices as the rest of us, its not an easy job that them men are trying to do!
Last edited by Ardbarron, 25/10/2008, 2:26
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24/10/2008, 20:33
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will maxwell
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Oh I know Ardbarron, I certainly wouldn't do it, but if Mr Dobbin expexcts to keep his job, sorry should that be COMPANY then someone had better start talking to the buyers! How is anyone expected to produce good quality milk for 18p?
I read somewhere (farmers guardian I think) that 2 dairy farmers a day are quitting the industry. Considering that and the fact that the vast majority of dairy farmers (in Norn Iron at least) are 50 or older, with very little young blood coming in to the industry (I was about to pack in the office job to go home and milk, building industry is on it's knees) where are United likey to be in say 10 years time?
OK maybe the small farms are quitting and the big guys getting bigger, but no matter how efficient the operation, production at 18p aint feasable.
Just wondering, at what point IS it feasable to show our disgust at ridiculously low milk prices by opening the bung and letting it flow!? If they don't want our milk, don't give them it? Maybe I'm rash and tempestuous, but I'm getting ever so slightly sick and tired of being taken for a ride by the 'buyers' - seems the old addage holds true......
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Farming is the oldest JOB in the world, too many people seem to have it confused with the oldest PROFESSION!
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24/10/2008, 21:24
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FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Will, you're feeling how all of us feel at some point or other - just let it flow man, get rid of all that frustration. Maybe you need to start smoking man.
But really, the problem is that we are price takers, and I don't know how that is going to change for us in the western world. We produce one of the most inflexible commodities know to man. We can't turn it off when the price is bad, and we can't shut it down on holidays.
I totally agree that United pay lower than the other lot pay my neighbour. At the risk of sounding totally daft, hear me out. United put a bottom in the local market, or rather, take the brunt of being left with worthless spring surplus milk. If United wasn't there paying a bad price, the other guys would pay you what they felt like. Don't forget that they pay a premium for NI milk just to take suppliers away from united and to give them more winter milk. If ROI production rises anything like as predicted when quotas go in five years, they won't be likely to pay premium for northern milk like they do now. Also, when you make the move, make sure you are going to like it, because I'm told none of the others will take you on unless you are coming from United. It is their target.
Would we have been financially better to have supplied an ROI company the last ten years? - undoubtedly, yes. Much better. Probably the same goes for the next five. After that, I'm not so sure. Thats crystal ball stuff.
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24/10/2008, 23:32
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Dairylands
EX92
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
I agree with FOAF in that I believe United put a bottom in the market. I also feel they provide some security to a smaller producer like myself. For example I heard at the market yesterday that Wiesmans was talking to a local 3 million litre producer this week. I'm sure I'll not be getting a visit.
Positively I believe we have some excellent efficient dairy farmers over here. (Though I accept that part of this efficiency is sadly due to the farmers working silly hours for silly money) I do not feel that this excellence is matched by the processors performance.
In my opinion (FWIW) to build a business model so reliant upon government subsidies is no better than those in towns who base their career aspirations upon queuing in the dole office. The processors may complain about pressure on them - but I'll only believe that when I hear of lay-offs 3-day weeks and wage cuts.
Dumping milk - are you serious? The only one that would hurt is us.
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25/10/2008, 13:20
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will maxwell
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
I thought dumping milk worked recently in Germany? Perhaps not!
Do you not think that a week or two of no milk would make the buyers think about what it's worth??
I know it would hurt us in the short term, but what about 'no pain, no gain'?!!
quote:
Maybe you need to start smoking man.
You must be on the weed MAN!! 
I hear what you're all saying about taking a low price to stabalise market 'n' all, but why should we get taken for a ride for 18p?
Perhaps if Mr Dobbin & Co can guarentee 32p+ for next summer we'll not be as upset, I doubt that though!
quote:
Will, why you talking bout giving Harold and co 'your tuppence worth', ok maybe Dobbin but the rest of them are only dairy farmers just like you and me and are going to be taking just as bad a prices as the rest of us, its not an easy job that them men are trying to do!
I noticed a wee column in the Annual report 'directors remuneration' does Harold & Co not get a slice of that cake?!!
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Farming is the oldest JOB in the world, too many people seem to have it confused with the oldest PROFESSION!
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25/10/2008, 14:03
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scoobyscotlad
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
quote:
dairylands wrote:
For example I heard at the market yesterday that Wisemans was talking to a local 3 million litre producer this week.
Would i be right in assuming you mean a N.I producer talking to Wiseman`s?
That shows how tight supplies are,when they would consider haulage,ferry costs..
18p is bad news for all,mainland producers too.Even with 3-4p/litre for haulage,it would still be cheap milk to "balance" with,considering Wiseman`s current base price of 27.2p/Tesco-28.75p
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25/10/2008, 17:31
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svennis
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
quote:
will maxwell wrote:
I thought dumping milk worked recently in Germany? Perhaps not!
Unfortunately our milk strike had no effect at all. Currently we are receiving 31 cent per litre and the price is expected to fall clearly below the 30 cent mark in the next months... 
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25/10/2008, 17:51
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Dairylands
EX92
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United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Yup, you'd be right scoobyscotlad. Fairly reliable source but how that could work in practice when you would want tankers full to the brim I don't know. Perhaps they are thinking of buying a struggling processor over here rather than shipping direct?
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25/10/2008, 18:48
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Dairylands
EX92
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United dairy farmers Dec Auction
re pulling the bung on the milk tank I wouldn't like to be asking the bank manager for an overdraft extension to allow me to dump a fortnights milk.
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25/10/2008, 18:54
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will maxwell
EX95
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
quote:
re pulling the bung on the milk tank I wouldn't like to be asking the bank manager for an overdraft extension to allow me to dump a fortnights milk.
So what do you expect your friendly local bank manager will say when you explain how you're selling milk for less than the cost of production? In my experience most bank managers are the 'economist' type, so good luck with explaining that one!
Svennis, I'm sorry to hear you guys are struggling too and that your protest didn't deliver the desired result. Any other ideas?!
I'm sorry to be 'raving' on about this, but (incase you hadn't gathered!) it just makes my blood boil, ever so slightly, when we're expected to take 18ppl and be thankful! I'm afraid I seem to be a lone voice in the wilderness here! Has everyone else just become resigned to the fact that we're gonna get shafted, roll over and say 'please sir, can I have some more'?! 
Is there no pride left in the industry (at least in Norn Iron)?
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Farming is the oldest JOB in the world, too many people seem to have it confused with the oldest PROFESSION!
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25/10/2008, 22:52
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Big Bird
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
I don't know about the 'no pride' comment, but I think there's a feeling that if dairy farmers get shafted again at this point many people are just going to say enough and walk away.
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26/10/2008, 4:32
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donkey5
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Re: United dairy farmers Dec Auction
And some of us will be walking away with bugger all, but hey you have to draw the line somewhere. 
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26/10/2008, 10:15
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Campbeltowncowboy
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United dairy farmers Dec Auction
Will:- I share your frustration if Wiseman can buy cheap milk in NI then the price paid here on the mainland must be affected buy that, explore every option before dumping,if the ferry from Ballycastle to Campbeltown was running we have a creamery here running under capacity and a price nearer 30p Oct/Nov but if you guys are at 18p how long will it be before we start to slip.
For years now you guys have proped up the Quota market and the cows going to NI have put a floor on cow prices in the south of Scotland /north of England so this will affect us too.But processors over here are at as well Wisemans and Grahams give the producers 0.75-1ppl and put it up to the shops by 4-5p and tell them it is to help producers, how long can they put the boot in like this.
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26/10/2008, 10:17
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