Page: 1 2
FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
Cyborg
Global user
Registered: 01-2004
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 1839
Karma: 41 (+41/-0)
|
 | 
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
I filled out the survey and have a small gripe with it. In some cases, we are asked to list our responses in order of preference. The survey demands that we rank three answers. For more than one of those questions, I was forced into making a second and third choice in order to proceed with the next question, when I didn't actually feel that more than one or two selections were appropriate. In one question, my first choice was completely incompatible with the other choices on the list.
|
|
11/9/2008, 13:08
|
|
FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
Cyborg
Global user
Registered: 01-2004
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 1839
Karma: 41 (+41/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
Interesting point about farmers using BACS and receiving the statement online.
I am a little embarrassed to say that, out of about 2400 United Dairy Farmer member-producers, it is reported that only 400 so far have availed of BACS.
I take that back, its not really embarrassing. It just really shows the age bracket that the majority of our members fall into.
|
|
12/9/2008, 22:31
|
|
Dairylands
EX92
Global user
Registered: 03-2006
Location: Straid
Posts: 268
Karma: 1 (+1/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
Personally I don't understand how any dairy farmer has time to potter down to the bank with a cheque - never mind the interest incurred whilst the cheque clears.
|
|
13/9/2008, 7:51
|
|
FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
Cyborg
Global user
Registered: 01-2004
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 1839
Karma: 41 (+41/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
I can't be sure, but I would think that names and contact details etc of co-operative members are not available to third parties other than have been previously accepted.
It would be possible to advertise the online survey in their monthly publication, 'United News', something possibly too time consuming and expensive for your situation.
I'd say the only people who would have the time and inclination to fill out an online survey are those of us that trawl the various gems that the internet affords, such as Cowtalk.
|
|
14/9/2008, 13:27
|
|
FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
Cyborg
Global user
Registered: 01-2004
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 1839
Karma: 41 (+41/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
I not much of a trekie actually, but I do have a bionic arm. 
|
|
14/9/2008, 18:54
|
|
Campbeltowncowboy
EX90
Global user
Registered: 03-2007
Posts: 164
Karma: 1 (+1/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
Jeremy - Why not try Ian Potter and see if he would put a link on his Daily update page might get some producers who are not Cowtalkers !
|
|
15/9/2008, 8:38
|
|
James Johnston
EX93
Global user
Registered: 01-2006
Location: Glasgow
Posts: 344
Karma: 5 (+5/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
quote:
Jeremy Franks wrote:
As for 90+ responses being good for an on-line survey of dairy farmers. I was under the impression that many dairy farmers received detials of their monthly milk cheque "down the wire", which implies they are fully kitted out for internet access. Is this correct? If it is, then I would expect a high proportion to have access to the survey - whether they have the time and interest to complete it is another matter of course.
Thanks for your comments, all others are very welcome.
Mr Franks,
To be frank(pun intended), whats in it for me or any other dairy farmer to waste our time filling out your on-line survey? I too am amazed you have got 90 farmers to fill out your survey. As for the question....
"What main sources of advice did you use when deciding to sell milk to your current buyer?"
....the answer for me was my p4 maths teacher(after we wised up). After deregulation we had 2 choises 1. Stay with "The Board" of First milk as they are knowen now or 2. Wisemans. We discused it as a family and decided to "All stick together" and sign up with a co-op buyer. 11 months later after we wised up the the fact that "The Board" was dead and the co-op's were always going to be disadvantaged in over supplyed, supply and demand market, we did the wise thing for us to do, we bought out the final month of our inital 12 month contract and signed with Wiseman. The extra 1-2p.p.l. scince has been hard enough to "survive" on but it would have been harder without it!!!
In short there was only 2 options after deregulation, and a very limited chance of 3 now in my post code.
---
I dont want index, I dont want type, I want both!!!
|
|
15/9/2008, 9:10
|
|
Jeremy Franks
GP81
Global user
Registered: 09-2008
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posts: 16
Karma: 0 (+0/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
James Johnson
OK looks like I am in business again.
The earlier response that was lost made an effort to convey why the findings of this survey may be of importance and use to some dairy farmers. Clearly if you have only one effective milk buyer you must pressure that buyer - by belonging to its farmer supply group (if it does not have one, then by forming one). If you do have an effective choice of milk buyer, then the following factors are among the most important to know (not the only ones, I agree, but which would you list as the most important)
(1) the cost of your milk processors collecting, processing and packaging, and distribution system;
(2) the markets they sell your milk into, and the flexibility they have to quickly sell into the most profitable market (through flexible plant and contracts) adn
(3) the profit margin them make on each unit sold - often hard to find out and difficult to interpret from annual accounts, but perhaps this can be correlated to the brands they own, the market share of these brands, and their retail outlets (poor but sometimes useful proxies).
What does this tell you? Well, it gives an idea of what the milk buyer COULD pay you for your milk.
If you know this for all your effective milk buyers they surely this would help you make a marketing decision. I would hope all Farmer supply Groups are pressing their milk buyer to reveal these data - well it may be thought of as confidential, but afterall, the milk buyers have plenty of access to detailed farm survey information which is (or should be) similarly confidential.
(And the Tesco contracts now insist on knowing their local milk suppliers entire financial costing! - what do we know about Tesco's costs? - practically nothing)
---
Dr Jeremy Franks, Newcastle University
|
|
15/9/2008, 10:44
|
|
James Johnston
EX93
Global user
Registered: 01-2006
Location: Glasgow
Posts: 344
Karma: 5 (+5/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
Jeremy,
"Clearly if you have only one effective milk buyer you must pressure that buyer....."
You seen to have the usual academic's problem of being clever, but with no common scence!??! You are missing the point of it still being a buyers market,(though by a much reduced margin than it has been scince deregulation) in a supply and demand led market. So long as there is enough milk being produced that allows ANY retailer to undercut the market to gain buissness through a "lost leader" deal, then I am afraid the bottom rung of the ladder, the primery producer will be the one to suffer, in ANY supply and demand led market.
Do you think the Goverment in this country want us to get a fair price for our milk??? Do they hell, they want cheap food and low inflation and they are too short sighted to care about the agricultural industry. If milk processors give ANY sign of colusion to force the price of milk up then the O.F.T come smashing down on them. Were is the O.F.T when middle-ground retailers start selling milk below the price the small independent retailers can BUY it at??? Come on Mr Franks, what happens next, the middle-ground takes buissness from the suppermarkets, they respond by undercutting the middle-ground to take it back(which they can do partley through economy of scale), then what happens, pressure is put onto the procesors, they get squeezed then they squeeze us!??! Try telling a corner shop owner he'll need to pay more for his milk because the farmers costs have gone up, when he could buy it from a suppermarkt just as cheaply......
If we could do as OPEC dose and regulate WORLD supply of milk as they do with oil then we could dictate the content of our milk contracts........if only.
---
I dont want index, I dont want type, I want both!!!
|
|
15/9/2008, 12:42
|
|
Jeremy Franks
GP81
Global user
Registered: 09-2008
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posts: 16
Karma: 0 (+0/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
James Jones
OK, first, not many people accuse me of being clever but having no common sense!
Second, you clearly feel there is nothing an individual dairy farmer can do to keep their FG price up, I disagree. Certainly collective action helps - if everybody is involved - but surely by now you can see that that ain't going to happen in UK milk.
OPEC works because it holds supply below demand - as you say. So, how can UK dairy farmers hold supply below demand. Two ways: (1) hold supply below UK processing capacity so processors pay higher prices to keep their capacity in use. OK short term but limited medium term impact because its easy to close surplus capacity causing a second round effect, namely farmers must lower production once more. How low do you need to go to keep Supply below Demand?
(2)Milk demand is 7 billion liquid, 3 billion branded and the rest 3.5 sold onto world markets as commodities - butter, SMP, cheese. So, continue to reduce supply until 3.5 billion litres of production "vanishes" (less any that in the meantime can be converted into a branded product).
So, the question is, for your OPEC model to work (leave aside its illegality for a moment!): which dairy farmers are among the 35-40% high cost or poor marketers (or perhaps a combination of both) producers who will be "forced" out BECAUSE of the OPEC "solution". If you JJ are, then you had better get out now before everybody sees the future and nobody will buy your cows+plant+farm or whatever.
I doubt the government cares about UK milk supply until it cannot get sufficint for its own tea and cheese and biscuits!
As for the role of the middle market - I take it your mean garage forecourts, inner-town expresses and corner shops - they have always charged a higher price for milk than the SM - (MDC reports etc). What has changed is Tesco Fresh'n'Lo discount brand - treating milk as a commodity with no enhanced sales features (local, green, filtered, etc). This will certainly take overall SM prices down if it continues. And they are entiled to continue if processors are willing to supply them. If SM are selling at "below cost" then the OFT needs to be informed - but how will they or we know, they dont reveal their costs by product line.
From my perspective, I don't want to see the milk sector decimated (or more correctly decimated times 4), so I fall back on looking at ways individual farmers can help themselves.
---
Dr Jeremy Franks, Newcastle University
|
|
15/9/2008, 13:36
|
|
James Johnston
EX93
Global user
Registered: 01-2006
Location: Glasgow
Posts: 344
Karma: 5 (+5/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
quote:
Jeremy Franks wrote:
James Jones Jones??? I take back the clever bit......
OK, first, not many people accuse me of being clever but having no common sense!
Second, you clearly feel there is nothing an individual dairy farmer can do to keep their FG price up, I disagree. Certainly collective action helps - if everybody is involved - but surely by now you can see that that ain't going to happen in UK milk.Never in dispute!??!
OPEC works because it holds supply below demand - as you say. So, how can UK I said Global not UKdairy farmers hold supply below demand. Two ways: (1) hold supply below UK I said Global not UKprocessing capacity so processors pay higher prices to keep their capacity in use. OK short term but limited medium term impact because its easy to close surplus capacity causing a second round effect, namely farmers must lower production once more. How low do you need to go to keep Supply below Demand?
(2)Milk demand is 7 billion liquid, 3 billion branded and the rest 3.5 sold onto world markets as commodities - butter, SMP, cheese. So, continue to reduce supply until 3.5 billion litres of production "vanishes" (less any that in the meantime can be converted into a branded product).
So, the question is, for your OPEC model to work Again I used OPEC as a GLOBAL example(leave aside its illegality for a moment!): which dairy farmers are among the 35-40% high cost or poor marketersHow many UK farmers will still be milking cows in 10 years if the average age of 58yrs is true? (or perhaps a combination of both) producers who will be "forced" out BECAUSE of the OPEC "solution".My OPEC "example" was just that, not a solution. If you JJ are, then you had better get out now before everybody sees the future and nobody will buy your cows+plant+farm or whatever.
I agree
I doubt the government cares about UK milk supply until it cannot get sufficint for its own tea and cheese and biscuits!
As for the role of the middle market - I take it your mean garage forecourts, inner-town expresses and corner shopsTry Aldi, Lidle Iceland and alike - they have always charged a higher price for milk than the SM - (MDC reports etc). What has changed is Tesco Fresh'n'Lo discount brand Who's??? Try again, Fresh n' Low isent a Tesco brand it's not new and it was dreamed up by the old Scottish board- treating milk as a commodity with no enhanced sales features (local, green, filtered, etc). This will certainly take overall SM prices down if it continues. And they are entiled to continue if processors are willing to supply them. If SM are selling at "below cost" then the OFT needs to be informed - but how will they or we know, they dont reveal their costs by product line.
From my perspective, I don't want to see the milk sector decimated nor do I, but it's happening, to what extent I cant quantify!??!(or more correctly decimated times 4), so I fall back on looking at ways individual farmers can help themselves.
Probably not by filling out on-line surveys IMHO
p.s. The red coulor is to highlight not to be agressive.
---
I dont want index, I dont want type, I want both!!!
|
|
15/9/2008, 15:42
|
|
FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
Cyborg
Global user
Registered: 01-2004
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 1839
Karma: 41 (+41/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
Jeremy,
If you don't think that manufacturing is a feasible end use for milk, what do you suggest large exporters like the whole island of ireland, and holland etc should do?
|
|
15/9/2008, 18:49
|
|
foxleigh
Ex97
True blue dinky-di maverick
Global user
Registered: 06-2003
Location: southern,oz
Posts: 2196
Karma: 21 (+21/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
personally I dont care what they do with my milk so long as I get the highest possible price for it and a price that covers ALL my costs including lifestyle - we have shifted from a liquid milk processor to a milk broker because of guarenteed price.
milk processors could do well to remeber that an aging dairyfarmer population does not HAVE to milk cows most of us CHOOSE to and we all have other options avalible to us.
|
|
16/9/2008, 1:50
|
|
Jeremy Franks
GP81
Global user
Registered: 09-2008
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posts: 16
Karma: 0 (+0/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
Several comments - quickly,
James Johnston (sorry!). Clearly I cannot envisage 14000 UK dairy farmers working together, so a globall movement (al al OPEC) never crossed my mind! About 1000 dairy farmers quit each year, upuntil recently their output was replaced by those remaining, but not for a year or so (hence the decrease in milk production). All business people can do something else - as the 1,000 a year clearly demonstrate. Its because 1,000 a year have gone, (and because of low recent profitability and because of high concentrate prices) that there has been no supply response to the recent higher milk prices - which means that those who remain in the industry have better chances of benefiting from the higher prices. Anyway, I challenged you (somewhere above) to say what your thought your three key decision making parameters were in chosing a milk buyer - what to put your neck on the line?
Firingonallfours: manufacturing can deliver a good income but it depends on branding and/or low cost production to earn a living on the global commodity markets. Holland have the brands and the co-operatives (at sizes that UK regulators have not allowed and they also have access to the entire EU land mass for milk supplies ets), Ireland have low production costs - grass not grain. Are our costs low enough to compete with Ireland and NZ on the global market - no, I dont think so. So, that's why I believe it is important to know what you milk is being used for- because it is only then that you can start to understand the processors business and their business decision, and then you can start to compare your milk price with either IMPE, AMPE or MFCV - whichever is the most relevant. Farmers can then track these markets and switch buyer to move into whichever market is likely to offer the best prices over the next 2 years. That is why I find the farmer retention funds so difficult to accept, they too strongly tie in farmers to a processor over which they have little business control, but into which they invest increasingly large sums of money (OK lets open this can of worms whilst we are at it). So, foxleigh: trade of certainty (guarantee) for uncertainty (variability) but that's no reason not to be interested in the end-use of your milk is it?
Most do now, like you, I've got work to do.
---
Dr Jeremy Franks, Newcastle University
|
|
16/9/2008, 7:33
|
|
FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
Cyborg
Global user
Registered: 01-2004
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 1839
Karma: 41 (+41/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17/9/2008, 8:37
|
|
FiringOnAllFour
Ex97
Cyborg
Global user
Registered: 01-2004
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 1839
Karma: 41 (+41/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
Ireland is not, in my opinion, a low cost producer. But for a small number of farms in the southern tip, most farms have all the buildings and equipment associated with high output production. Cows cannot be outwintered. I don't imagine anywhere is low cost in the old EU.
Branding strength such as arla or campina have will never be achieved here, due to lack of scale and the OFT.
So without brand strength or low cost, what do you suggest is the way forward?
|
|
17/9/2008, 8:47
|
|
Jeremy Franks
GP81
Global user
Registered: 09-2008
Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posts: 16
Karma: 0 (+0/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
FiringOnAllFours (what a pity, I though it would be JJ responding).
Quick response (no magic bullet of course). Those farms I've seen in Ireland are low cost. By this I mean low variable cost because they "produce milk from grass". Because they are small they tend to incur larger fixed costs/litre I agree. However, I always associate milk from grass as low cost. I agree wrt the scale issue and farmer-owned branding - a big disadvantage to UK farmers. Also, the successful continental coops are the survivors, many went bust in the process taking farms along with them.
What to do? As in everything, it is important to get the most from everything that you have control over, and to expand the things you have control over. Benefits are not addative but multiplicative (a catch phrase recently trolled out to explain our success on the velodrome but which has been around for decades). The catch is, the more people involved the faster the benefits can multiply.
So, every dairy farmer needs to find what part of their business gives them an advantage over other dairy farmers, and exploit that. This will lead some to expand, others to specialise in production systems, others to diversify, others to quit. Also, if I was a diary farmers, I would try to initiate a local "club" of similar minded, like thinking dairy farmers and work together to improve performance, marketing etc. A club acts by providing benefits to its members, so all the benefits of this cooperation must remain the rights of the club members (no free-riders). IF this worked, it might lead to joint decisions regarding marketing - a group of 30 - 50 reasonably sized dairy farmers altering their marketing arrangements together may influence terms and conditions whereas each acting alone will not. I would then look towards securing contracts that allowed me to change buyers at short notice - here there is certainly a large degree of risk, but return is based on risk (or should be).
Now you can see the logic behind my questionnarie - is this reasonable? Do other dairy farmers follow the same model? If not, what model do they follow?
Anybody else what to put their neck on the line? Well, I hope everybody reading this does complete the on-line questionnaire (see first posting of this thread), it must be withdrawn in a couple of weeks.
(PS sorry for the length of this post, seems I do have a academic's problem with long-windedness)
---
Dr Jeremy Franks, Newcastle University
|
|
17/9/2008, 11:26
|
|
foxleigh
Ex97
True blue dinky-di maverick
Global user
Registered: 06-2003
Location: southern,oz
Posts: 2196
Karma: 21 (+21/-0)
|
|
|
|
|
Re: Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
quote:
Jeremy Franks wrote:
FiringOnAllFours (what a pity, I though it would be JJ responding).
Quick response (no magic bullet of course). Those farms I've seen in Ireland are low cost. By this I mean low variable cost because they "produce milk from grass". Because they are small they tend to incur larger fixed costs/litre I agree. However, I always associate milk from grass as low cost. I agree wrt the scale issue and farmer-owned branding - a big disadvantage to UK farmers. Also, the successful continental coops are the survivors, many went bust in the process taking farms along with them.
What to do? As in everything, it is important to get the most from everything that you have control over, and to expand the things you have control over. Benefits are not addative but multiplicative (a catch phrase recently trolled out to explain our success on the velodrome but which has been around for decades). The catch is, the more people involved the faster the benefits can multiply.
So, every dairy farmer needs to find what part of their business gives them an advantage over other dairy farmers, and exploit that. This will lead some to expand, others to specialise in production systems, others to diversify, others to quit. Also, if I was a diary farmers, I would try to initiate a local "club" of similar minded, like thinking dairy farmers and work together to improve performance, marketing etc. A club acts by providing benefits to its members, so all the benefits of this cooperation must remain the rights of the club members (no free-riders). IF this worked, it might lead to joint decisions regarding marketing - a group of 30 - 50 reasonably sized dairy farmers altering their marketing arrangements together may influence terms and conditions whereas each acting alone will not. I would then look towards securing contracts that allowed me to change buyers at short notice - here there is certainly a large degree of risk, but return is based on risk (or should be).
Now you can see the logic behind my questionnarie - is this reasonable? Do other dairy farmers follow the same model? If not, what model do they follow?
Anybody else what to put their neck on the line? Well, I hope everybody reading this does complete the on-line questionnaire (see first posting of this thread), it must be withdrawn in a couple of weeks.
(PS sorry for the length of this post, seems I do have a academic's problem with long-windedness)
1)grass can be more expensive to grow than many other things.....kg DM/ha is a better way to go
2) we have already formed our farmers group and lobbied for better milk prices and invited quotes for milk from outside the region and then voted with our feet and left our processor enmass.
3) when was the last time anybody asked a plastic blow moulder a) what went into his bottles and b)what that product was sold for? I bet he wouldnt care so long as he got paid what he wanted for his bottles.Well I dont care who our broker sells our milk to so long as I get paid.
|
|
18/9/2008, 13:10
|
|
click here to give a full reply or use the box below for a quick reply
Page: 1 2
|
You are not logged in (login)
Board's time is: 1/12/2009, 13:23
|
|
|
Survey of marketing arrangements of dairy farmers
