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ExpectingRain
EX95
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Re: Genomic Young Sires To Watch

quote:
Buckeye wrote:

That list exists but I am sure that we won't see it. I saw one last summer, and when I relayed some of the information, people on here criticized what I reported like I was crazy. Sanchez was one bull whose genomics were lower than his early proof. With added daughters he has moved higher. You have to realize that Genomics are just a narrowing of the statistical bell curve. I don't have time to post a link but you can find information on genomics and statistical analysis in regards to bull proofs.

Another way of putting it
Bull A with PA PTA has a PTA for Protein of 55 the expected range for his actual value of 20 to 90 pounds of protein. With a genomic proof, that same 55 number may shrink to a range 33 to 77. A saying you teach beginning marksman is "Aim small, miss small".


Surely the genomic data can move the normal distribution to the left or right as well as reducing the variance? The bulls that are creating the interest are surely the ones whose genomic proof is significantly higher than their parental average and the ones being discarded from the testing process those who fall short?

If there is a strong correlation between a genomic proof and the actual proof then I am sure that the commercial organisations involved in the technology will be sure to publicise the fact.



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Crosshutton Holsteins

60 Homebred cows Annual Average 9800 4.2. 3.3
1EX 32VG 16GP 10G 1F 1P
5/6/2009, 4:33   
 
errolston
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Seems like there is plenty to choose from. I did a search on Dairybulls.com yesterday of bulls over 2000 TPI and the database returned 740!!!

Is this for real? Can we really have any faith in these numbers?

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Errolston_Holsteins updated 27th October 2007.
4/11/2009, 8:36   
 
Cowsrus
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Aftershock & Destry (im betting my house on it) haha, no i think these are the two hottest genomic bulls on the market! Both with ABS
4/11/2009, 10:56   
 
peternl
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USA Genomics proofs are still 15% overestimated, it's better to look at Canadian Genomic proofs, still a little bit overestimation, but not more than 5%.

Last edited by peternl, 4/11/2009, 13:05


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Milking 61 cows; Herd Classification 1EX -26VG - 27GP -5G - 2NC; Annual Milk Average 9795 - 4.3% 417 - 3.5% 342 kgs
4/11/2009, 13:05   
 
Burnleigh
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Peternl, Curious as to what you base your over estimation comparisons on. I thought the US data had a higher reliability rating because they have been involved with genomic testing longer resulting in them haveing a greater number of animals tested in their database, given time I would think that the Canadian rel% will reach that of what the US is today????
6/11/2009, 9:55   
 
AndrewR
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Re: Genomic Young Sires To Watch

alternatively, the Canadians have a better evaluation, and the USA could reach theirreliability?
6/11/2009, 11:51   
 
peternl
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Had some presentations on genomics a few weeks ago, where they show the results of mixing genomic information with parental averages and than the first breeding value where also progeny was included (differences for new proven bulls in last genomic parental average and genomic breeding value of first proof). Using the USDA method the breeding values in average would been overestimated 15%, using the CDN method (some adjustment factors) the overestimation was about 5%.

When you use common sense and have a look on the USA TPI list including young bulls, this is quite good possible looking at the ratio young:older bulls and the number of bulls with a GPTAT > 4.

Last edited by peternl, 6/11/2009, 12:27


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Milking 61 cows; Herd Classification 1EX -26VG - 27GP -5G - 2NC; Annual Milk Average 9795 - 4.3% 417 - 3.5% 342 kgs
6/11/2009, 12:25   
 
JTTH
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Re: …

quote:
peternl wrote:

USA Genomics proofs are still 15% overestimated, it's better to look at Canadian Genomic proofs, still a little bit overestimation, but not more than 5%.



Have do you know?
Facts? Links?





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Tastum Holsteins
6/11/2009, 12:28   
 
peternl
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Here are some papers that were presented in Canada, quite some about genomics (results, expectations, accuracy): http://www.cdn.ca/Articles/GEBOCT2009/Industry%20Session%20Agenda%20-%20October%202009.pdf

This is what I understood from these papers.

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Milking 61 cows; Herd Classification 1EX -26VG - 27GP -5G - 2NC; Annual Milk Average 9795 - 4.3% 417 - 3.5% 342 kgs
6/11/2009, 16:11   
 
POSAL
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Re: …

quote:
peternl wrote:

Here are some papers that were presented in Canada, quite some about genomics (results, expectations, accuracy): http://www.cdn.ca/Articles/GEBOCT2009/Industry%20Session%20Agenda%20-%20October%202009.pdf

This is what I understood from these papers.

What I get from those papers is the a genomic proof would be 60% reliable not more...
So is that enough for you?

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BANNED

Best Regards,
Posal: Home of Royalist, Donay, Olimpia.
191 VG and 14 EX

6/11/2009, 16:48   
 


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