merkin
Bullpen Guard
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Registered: 02-2006
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Attendance vs Home Run Rate
Chart at bottom
I have heard many times that Home Runs were linked to attendance, especially when talking about the pumped up attendance figures of the steroid era. So I decided I would look at some stats to see if I could find any correlation.
Now, first I took data after the mound was lowered in 1969. Second I take per game attendance because the number of teams in baseball has changed so much. And lastly I took team HR's and divided by 9 and normalized to 162 game schedule.
>>>>>>For those skimming this, skip forward now<<<<<<
So what do we see. First we see two dips, 1st in 1981 when a strike interrupted the season. and then in 1995 returning from the season ending lock out of 1994. Second, with the exception of strikes, we see a strong steady up trend in attendance.
OK besides work stoppages and general trends, lets make a few observations
a) From 1969 to 1985 (ignoring 1981) we see a steady increase in attendance with Home Run rates fluctuate back and forth.
b) The Home Run surge of 1986-1987 is accompanied by a bump in attendance, but nothing unexpected independent of Home Run rate.
c) The reversal of the Home Run surge from 1988 to 1991 is also accompanied by a attendance increase running contrary to popular notion.
d) Home Runs surged again in 1992-93, this time accompanied by a large surge in attendance.
e) 1995 to present, Home Runs fluctuate in a new higher range while attendance starts a new uptrend recovering from the 1994 Work Stoppage.
>>>>>>For those skimming this, start reading again here<<<<<<
So in conclusion what can we say.
1) The work stoppage of 1981 wasn't nearly as damaging to attendance as the Work Stoppage of 1994.
2) It wasn't until 2007 where per game attendance reached the highs of 1993
3) There is no clear correlation between Home Run rate and Attendance, in fact it would seem from inspection that these are independent variables
4) The notion that Home Run rates are linked to attendance likely originates with the 1992-93 spike in attendance and Home Runs.
Last edited by merkin, 7/15/2009, 9:31 pm
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"...the best evaluation of players is subjective judgment...The real baseball world is inevitably going to be hundreds of times more complicated than the model that we construct...." -Bill James
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7/15/2009, 8:39 pm
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